After reading Chris Pirillo's Vista Rant on his blog and chatting with mates about Vista at a Grand Final Day BBQ on Saturday (before the game) I got to wondering what is in store for Microsoft’s future.

The blogger makes the following statement:
My mates made similar comments. One wanted Apple to release OS X for all Intel-based PC’s but the rest were simply considering buying a Mac to get OS X and the iLife bundle. We all agreed that it would be nice to have a headless Mac with easy upgradeable CPU, HDD, RAM and video card.

There's a joke going around at the moment:
Q: Did you hear about Vista Service Pack 1?
A: It restores the computer back to XP.

In real life this isn't quite so true but the list of fixes in the beta SP1 is so long that it would have probably been wiser of Microsoft to do just that.

So now I'm thinking, if Apple stick to only supporting OS X on Apple computers (and why shouldn’t they?) and the only way for disenfranchised Windows users to get OS X is to sell their PC’s and buy Macs then what happens to the other computer makers? Sure there’s the enterprise market, which Windows dominates and Apple predominately ignore, but can this market support HP, Dell, Toshiba, Lenovo and all the other players if the market loses faith in Microsoft to ever deliver a stable version of Vista. And once the decision is made to ditch Windows and fit out an office with Macs it could be years before the company would have a decent enough return on their investment to consider changing OS again.
Obviously the PC makers have already noticed the trend to avoid Vista and are making deals with the distributors of the various Linux flavours so they can continue selling computers after XP is phased out (which Microsoft have extended by another 5 months. It seems they don’t have much faith in Vista either).

Maybe the next step for the big PC makers is to build their own OS and be a whole-package provider like Apple. All it would take is a big player like HP or Dell to buy Red Hat or some other flavour, brand it as their own with some tweaks to suit their needs, include a Bootcamp equivalent or virtual machine like Parallels so they could appease their corporate clients who might be nervous about dumping Microsoft and then use their existing market presence to assimilate the new OS into the marketplace.

Microsoft’s delay in delivering a reliable version of Vista also opens an opportunity for Google, who could either team up with one of the major PC makers or buy out one the smaller but upcoming makers, such as ASUS. Combine this with their own OS or a deal with a Linux distributor and their existing suite of apps and Google could be looking Apple square in the eye.

I’m not a football fan (of any code) but I can see a resemblance to Microsoft and Port Adelaide’s performance on Saturday. Both had enough to make it to the top but once they were there they found the competition fierce and their own skills lacking.

Microsoft has a vice-like grip on the desktop PC (and increasingly the server) market. If Apple or anyone can erode that share to even 70 (MS)/30 (other), then holy shit - we're in for a good fight.

Microsoft have very very talented people working for them, the stuff in the R&D labs is great and they certainly don't have a shortage of money (more than anyone in the world and most governments), they're a healthy company.

Hopefully it means Microsoft starts to innovate for once and brings something half-decent to the foreground (the xbox 360 is a good start).

Interesting thoughts. It has the potential to turn the windows OS more into an app than an OS.

Microsoft is in for the long haul, Bill started the company with a policy to ensure that they have enough of their profit stashed away to operate the company for a year or two without making any sales.

And notice that Microsoft have just extended the finish date for new sales of XP, which gives them some more breathing space to get Vista working reliably on more machines.

A while ago they were definite that it wouldn't be extended, but as soon as the cash flow might be at risk XP gets a stay of execution.

That might even happen again...

As you do

Cats versus Port, OS X versus Vista, Yada, Yada and so forth.

Then why do the heck do they keep making software for PCs???

First there was Quicktime, then iTunes, and now Safari, and I am sure some other stuff along they way.

Apple may say no to OS X on PCs, but it looks all the way like a sneak attack from behind to make Mac OS for PCs.

Or Adobe, maybe? Really I would not be surprised if there was something soon that comes close to an Operating System like announcement.

Just think walk up to any PC or Mac, not even your own, and start doing some limited office or design type work in a virtual workspace, nothing left on the hard disk, that could not be cleared like say a cache.

I don't think Apple's aim with releasing those programs for Windows is a toe in the "lets make OS X for generic x86 hardware".

iTunes is on Windows to drive iPod sales (which is did very well)
QuickTime is on Windows to make it a digital video standards (which it has, for the most part).
Safari is on Windows to garnish Google search revenue from the built-in search bar, as well as getting web developers testing sites for iPhone/Safari (and because WebKit is open source and not that much of a challenge to "port" to Windows anyways).

I agree, making apps for Windows is completely different to providing an OS for PC's. The apps just extend Apple's presence and allow them to entice more Windows users to switch.

Apple have always been a hardware AND software company. Microsoft have only entered the hardware market in the last few years and they've avoided making their own PC's, maybe to please the other makers or maybe because they don't believe it's worth it.

I think if Apple didn't provide the whole package of well designed hardware and software then they would've disappeared years ago.

There's no question Vista/Leopard presents an enormous opportunity for Apple to make a quantum leap in market share.

However I disagree (for now) with those who suggest they should sell the OS for generic x86 hardware. I used to think this would be a good move, but the Apple hardware is so nice and the user experience so good that it would be a shame to sully OS X with driver crash hell.

I think Apple is capable of gearing itself to shift profits from computer sales to ipod, iphone, etc sales. I don't think they will ever stop selling computers but I think they are almost in a position to sell OS X for general PC's and afford to take a cut on hardware sales. It need not be a generic OS X for all PC's....indeed, that would be hell. All Apple need do is strike a deal with someone like Dell where the systems have a known config. Apple takes a cut from OS X sales and everyone else gets an iMac class computer that can be upgraded easily enough. The only hardware in those things worth worrying about is the graphics card but then the situation there would be no different to what exists with the Mac Pro right now.

I think it's a very clever move to place these products inside the Windows® Environment. Like getting them in large chain retailers. Pure genius in terms of branding.

Exactly... people get used to them, confident in them, and when they are due for a new computer go.. hey.. I already like and now how to use these programs... a Mac isn't so scarey as I once thought... then they pay for their new iMac.

You must live in that alternate universe where Apple programs for PC work as flawlessly as they do on the mac.

Whilst there are a lot of problems with windows itself, Apple software has one other thing going against it and thats when something does go wrong, the user is more likely to say 'stupid Apple software' than 'stupid windows'. Hardly planting the seeds for a switcher.

All the people I know that switched, did so becasue they had a play with OS X.

Like sneaking up on the Death Star and whacking an Apple sticker on the back of it

That's what I was getting at, I never suggested that Apple's sneak attack on the PC market was going to ever give people driver crash hell.

It was going to be well controlled one to start with.